Assessing potential NBA play-in teams' ability to pull off a first-round upset

The tremendous depth in the NBA could mean talented teams will slip in the standings and participate in the play-in tournament that begins on April 16. (That tournament includes teams with the seventh- to 10th-highest winning percentages in each conference.)

Remember that last season the Miami Heat snuck by the Chicago Bulls in the play-in and advanced to the NBA Finals. 

Do any of this season's borderline playoff teams have a shot at similar magic? Here's an early look:

(All statistics and records are through Tuesday's games.)

Eastern Conference

Chicago Bulls (31-34)

The Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks are 5-1 combined against Chicago, not a good sign for the Bulls. Chicago isn't bereft of talent and protects the ball well (fourth in turnovers, 12.3 a game), which is always helpful in the postseason, but it doesn't have enough offensive firepower to keep up with the big guns. The Bulls have no chance against the East's top seeds.

Indiana Pacers (37-29)

The Pacers didn't turn into an immediate force in the East after acquiring Pascal Siakam as some expected. However, they have the potential to be a pest in the first round for a team such as Milwaukee or the Cleveland Cavaliers. 

A high-powered offense and a point guard who rarely turns the ball over (Tyrese Haliburton), a rangy forward who can defend multiple positions (Siakam) and a coach (Rick Carlisle) with plenty of postseason experience could pose problems for an opponent. This would not be a fun series for a top seed.

Miami Heat (35-29) 

Here we go again. Miami has a top-10 net rating since the All-Star break, but that hasn't necessarily translated to wins. But when has Erik Spoelstra's team ever cared about regular-season wins? This team is built for the playoffs. We've seen it before from worse Heat teams, so, yes, they can pull a first-round upset again.

Philadelphia 76ers (36-29)

There's a 7-foot question mark for the Sixers. If Joel Embiid is playing, the Sixers would be a nightmare first-round matchup for any top team in the East. If Embiid is not playing — he has been rehabbing a knee injury for weeks — the Sixers could struggle to score 80 and would be a quick first-round opponent for Boston, Milwaukee or Cleveland. 

Western Conference

Golden State Warriors (34-30)

The move of Klay Thompson to the bench was savvy by head coach Steve Kerr, but Golden State is worse in pretty much every major statistical category than the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets, who are among the big guns in the West. With transcendent shooter Stephen Curry, the Warriors could steal a game (maybe even two) on chemistry and coaching, but winning a series against the top dogs is far-fetched.

Los Angeles Lakers (36-30)

LeBron James is shooting 44% from three-point range over the past 15 games and D'Angelo Russell is playing his best ball in a long time. Plus, Jarred Vanderbilt and Gabe Vincent are likely to return from injuries in time for the playoffs. Los Angeles would not be a fun first-round matchup for most opponents. Can they beat Denver? Probably not. Could they give the Minnesota Timberwolves or OKC a run? Absolutely.  

Sacramento Kings (37-27)

Last season's electric Kings offense has taken a step back, so the only way this team will keep up with any of the West's elite is by getting scorching hot over the course of a seven-game series. Even then, Sacramento might be giving up too much defensively to compete. The Kings are good, but they'll probably be out after the first round.

Dallas Mavericks (37-28)

If you're a top seed, you don't want to gameplan against Luka Doncic, who is averaging 34.6 points, 9.9 assists and 9.1 rebounds. It's as simple as that. Avoid the guy who scored 73 points in a game this season. Dallas could pull off an upset.