Frelund projects 49ers' Nick Bosa to lead NFL in sacks again

Respected analyst Cynthia Frelund released her projections for the 2023 NFL season stat leaders. Creating the NFL.com feature involved running 23,000 simulations for each of the 272 regular-season games. Two San Francisco 49ers players popped up on Frelund's list of leaders.

Nick Bosa is the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year. He ranked No. 4 in the "NFL Top 100 Players of 2023" after leading the league in sacks last year with 18.5.

Frelund projects that Bosa will lead the NFL again, earning 14 sacks in 2023.

"My model's results for the top four are: Nick Bosa, Micah Parsons, Myles Garrett, and T.J. Watt," wrote Frelund. "In general, the results for the NFC are more interesting than I thought, with four more rushers from that conference appearing in the top 15 than the AFC. To me, the strength of the NFC O-lines will likely be a huge factor, given the amount of elite pass rushers and uncertainty of the conference heading into the season. Both Aidan Hutchinson and Brian Burns amass at least 11 sacks in 57 and 56.8 percent of simulations, respectively. As a team, the Eagles rank No. 1 in total sacks, with the Niners second."

San Francisco added defensive tackle Javon Hargrave this offseason. He joins Bosa and Arik Armstead to create a formidable defensive front. However, Bosa continues to hold out from training camp as he awaits a new contract from the 49ers.

The other 49ers player that landed on Frelund's list is running back Christian McCaffrey, who the analysts projects to have the most total touches in the NFL—395. That's more than the 329 total touches he had last season.

"Last season, Christian McCaffrey exhibited his fastest burst (speed reached in first 3 yards traveled once the ball is snapped) since his 2016 rookie campaign, per computer vision," wrote Frelund. "I always look for surprises in this category, and first-year running back Bijan Robinson ranks high in this list, too. He warrants way too early Offensive Rookie of the Year consideration -- if you want to go outside of a quarterback narrative."

McCaffrey is coming off a 2022 campaign where he racked up a gaudy 1,880 all-purpose yards and 13 total touchdowns, his most impressive numbers since 2019. More touches and a full offseason to learn head coach Kyle Shanahan's offense could result in a big year for the veteran running back.

"OTAs were great, just to really understand the concepts and really, not just learn the running back position, but the whole offense," McCaffrey said this week, "and understand timing with what the quarterback sees and what Kyle sees, and getting timing right with the O-line, and [FB Kyle Juszczyk], and the tight ends. So coming into camp, you're not playing catch up. So it's been great to be able to kind of not just learn the offense, but master it."